Resolved Tech Prediction Markets
How tech prediction markets actually resolved — the final outcome of each, when it settled, and the market-implied probability right before resolution. A running archive of tech results across Polymarket and Kalshi.
NOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 31, 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOGemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill Amazon have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Thinky have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 99% beforeNOWill Tencent have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Bytedance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill StepFun have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Mistral have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Bytedance have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeYESGoogle Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?Aug 30, 2026 · 100% beforeYESGoogle Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026?Aug 30, 2026 · 100% beforeYESGoogle Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 30, 2026?Aug 30, 2026 · 100% beforeYESGoogle Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?Aug 30, 2026 · 100% beforeYESGoogle Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026?Aug 30, 2026 · 100% beforeNODoes Ox Alpha belong to Microsoft?Aug 28, 2026 · 0% beforeYESDoes Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?Aug 28, 2026 · 100% beforeNODoes Ox Alpha belong to Nvidia?Aug 28, 2026 · 0% beforeNODoes Ox Alpha belong to Anthropic?Aug 28, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Aug 28, 2026 · 100% beforeNODoes Ox Alpha belong to Amazon?Aug 28, 2026 · 0% beforeNODoes Ox Alpha belong to OpenAI?Aug 28, 2026 · 0% beforeNODoes Ox Alpha belong to Mistral?Aug 28, 2026 · 0% beforeNODoes Ox Alpha belong to Google?Aug 28, 2026 · 0% beforeNODoes Ox Alpha belong to Moonshot AI?Aug 28, 2026 · 0% beforeNODoes Ox Alpha belong to Meta?Aug 28, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?Aug 26, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?Aug 22, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Aug 22, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?Jul 31, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 29, 2026?Jul 30, 2026 · 1% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 28, 2026?Jul 29, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 27, 2026?Jul 28, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 26, 2026?Jul 27, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 25, 2026?Jul 26, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 24, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 1% beforeYESWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?Jul 25, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?Jul 25, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster?Jul 25, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 25?Jul 25, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?Jul 25, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?Jul 25, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 27?Jul 25, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 26?Jul 25, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 25, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 29, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 30, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 31, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 26, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?Jul 25, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 23, 2026?Jul 24, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 22, 2026?Jul 23, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 21, 2026?Jul 22, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 12, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 10, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% before