Resolved Tech Prediction Markets
How tech prediction markets actually resolved — the final outcome of each, when it settled, and the market-implied probability right before resolution. A running archive of tech results across Polymarket and Kalshi.
NOWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?Jul 12, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 24, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 20, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 19, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 31, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 29, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 not be released before August 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 30, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 22, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 18, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 25, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 27, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 21, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 11, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeYESGPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 100% beforeYESGPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 100% beforeYESGPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 100% beforeYESGPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 100% beforeYESGPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 100% beforeYESGPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 17, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 23, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 14, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 15, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 12, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 10, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 13, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?Jul 10, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 8, 2026?Jul 9, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?Jul 8, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 6, 2026?Jul 7, 2026 · 0% beforeYESMalik Tillman: 1+ shots on targetJul 7, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 2+ shots on targetJul 7, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 5+ shotsJul 7, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 4+ shotsJul 7, 2026YESMalik Tillman: 1+ goalsJul 7, 2026 · 100% beforeYESMalik Tillman: 1+ goals + assistsJul 7, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 3+ goals + assistsJul 7, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 2+ goals + assistsJul 7, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 3+ shots on targetJul 7, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 2+ assistsJul 7, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 1+ assistsJul 7, 2026NOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 5, 2026?Jul 6, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 4, 2026?Jul 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOMalik Tillman: 5+ shotsJul 2, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 2+ goals + assistsJul 2, 2026YESMalik Tillman: 1+ goals + assistsJul 2, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 3+ goals + assistsJul 2, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 4+ goals + assistsJul 2, 2026YESMalik Tillman: 1+ goalsJul 2, 2026 · 100% beforeNOMalik Tillman: 2+ goalsJul 2, 2026 · 4% beforeNOMalik Tillman: 1+ assistsJul 2, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 2+ assistsJul 2, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 3+ shots on targetJul 2, 2026YESMalik Tillman: 1+ shots on targetJul 2, 2026NOMalik Tillman: 2+ shots on targetJul 2, 2026YESWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Jul 2, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Jul 2, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Jul 2, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Jul 2, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Jul 2, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Jul 2, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Jul 2, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Jul 2, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Jul 2, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?Jul 2, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill Amazon acquire TikTok?Jul 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Meta acquire TikTok?Jul 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Microsoft acquire TikTok?Jul 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?Jul 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?Jul 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?Jul 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?Jul 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?Jul 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?Jul 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?Jul 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Jul 1, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?Jul 1, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?Jul 1, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?Jul 1, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 10, 2026?Jul 1, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026?Jul 1, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?Jul 1, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?Jun 23, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?Jun 16, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?Jun 13, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?Jun 13, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?Jun 13, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?Jun 13, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?Jun 13, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30?Jun 13, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?Jun 13, 2026 · 100% before