Resolved Tech Prediction Markets
How tech prediction markets actually resolved — the final outcome of each, when it settled, and the market-implied probability right before resolution. A running archive of tech results across Polymarket and Kalshi.
NOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on September 30, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released by September 23, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on September 23, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on September 28, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on September 26, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill there be no next Claude Opus model release by September 30, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on September 25, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on September 29, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on September 27, 2026?Sep 23, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?Sep 22, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?Sep 20, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Sep 18, 2026 · 100% beforeNOGemini 4.0 released by September 15, 2026?Sep 16, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 15, 2026?Sep 16, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?Sep 16, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $1,900?Sep 10, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,200?Sep 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,300?Sep 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,600?Sep 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,400?Sep 10, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $1,800?Sep 10, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100?Sep 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?Sep 10, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 12, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 8, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 20, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 5, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 6, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 30, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 14, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 11, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 21, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 25, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 9, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 26, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 28, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 7, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 15, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 25, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 11, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 16, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 22, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 17, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 24, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 13, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 10, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill there be no OpenAI Astra model release by September 30, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 27, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill GPT-6 be released by November 30, 2026?Sep 5, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 31, 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOGemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeYESWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 100% beforeYESWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 99% beforeYESWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 100% beforeNOWill StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Bytedance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Tencent have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill StepFun have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Thinky have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Mistral have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Bytedance have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Amazon have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% beforeNOWill Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Sep 1, 2026 · 0% before