Across 7,830 resolved markets, the price landed within 2.4 percentage points of what actually happened, on average. When these markets priced something at 70%, it came true about 70% of the time.
This page scores every resolved binary market by comparing its final pre-resolution price against the real outcome — across sports and politics. Short-term automated crypto price markets and price-ladder rungs are excluded so the numbers reflect genuine forecasting. Figures update as new markets resolve.
Do Prediction Markets Actually Get It Right?
Everyone quotes prediction-market odds; far fewer check them afterward. This page does. For every resolved market we take the price right before it settled and compare it to what actually happened. If markets are well-calibrated, the things they price at 70% should happen about 70% of the time.
Only binary (Yes/No) outcomes are scored. Non-binary settlements are excluded, and a category is shown only once it has enough resolved history to be meaningful.