Manifold💻 Tech
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
26%Unlikely
M$13.7M· $3.0k avg· Jan 2028
💻Tech Prediction Markets
733 live tech markets across 6 platforms
Technology prediction markets cover product launches, AI milestones, company outcomes and other events shaping the industry. Predacle aggregates tech odds from multiple prediction platforms, giving you a single view of how the market is pricing each question — and where platforms disagree.
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
5%Long shot
M$7.3M· $6.6k avg· Jan 2030
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
14%Long shot
M$4.2M· $5.1k avg· Jan 2101
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
14%Long shot↓5%
$2.4M· Jan 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
AI bubble burst in 2026?
11%Long shot↓4%
$2.4M· Jan 2027
Manifold💻 Tech
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
49%Toss-up
M$2.0M· $915 avg· Jan 2029
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
8%Long shot
M$1.7M· $3.6k avg· Jan 2040
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
80%Likely YES↑14%
$1.1M· Dec 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
4%Long shot
M$1.0M· $1.9k avg· Dec 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1%Long shot
$938,029· Dec 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
11%Long shot
M$860,090· $2.6k avg· Jan 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0%Long shot
$811,513· Dec 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0%Long shot
$750,782· Dec 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
54%Toss-up
M$744,346· $753 avg· Jan 2030
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
98%Strong YES
M$697,061· $2.0k avg· Mar 2030
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
3%Long shot
$663,294· Jan 2027
Manifold💻 Tech
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
58%Toss-up
M$663,249· $952 avg· Jan 2030
Manifold💻 Tech
Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?
16%Long shot
M$621,034· $3.7k avg· Jan 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1%Long shot↓1%
$608,691· Dec 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
100%Strong YES↑38%
$580,605· Oct 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
10%Long shot
M$519,171· $622 avg· Feb 2027
Manifold💻 Tech
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
52%Toss-up
M$472,362· $838 avg· Jan 2028
Manifold💻 Tech
Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?
45%Toss-up
M$467,225· $1.4k avg· Dec 2030
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
95%Strong YES↑10%
$451,264· Dec 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
86%Strong YES↓2%
$410,379· Oct 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
98%Strong YES
M$376,078· $1.2k avg· Jan 2028
Polymarket💻 Tech
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
4%Long shot↓1%
$355,395· Oct 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
13%Long shot↑7%
$341,855· Oct 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
100%Strong YES↑12%
$328,245· Jan 2027
Manifold💻 Tech
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
77%Likely YES
M$288,034· $776 avg· Jan 2028
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
11%Long shot
M$282,771· $1.3k avg· Dec 2060
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?
3%Long shot↓49%
$276,837· Jul 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?
100%Strong YES
$272,835· Sep 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
16%Long shot
M$272,023· $683 avg· Dec 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Will we get AGI before 2027?
3%Long shot
M$256,836· $810 avg· Mar 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
95%Strong YES↑16%
$253,657· Sep 2026
See how accurate markets have been on our track record page, browse resolved Tech markets.