Manifold💻 Tech
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
29%Unlikely
M$12.3M· $2.7k avg· Jan 2028
💻Tech Prediction Markets
619 live tech markets across 6 platforms
Technology prediction markets cover product launches, AI milestones, company outcomes and other events shaping the industry. Predacle aggregates tech odds from multiple prediction platforms, giving you a single view of how the market is pricing each question — and where platforms disagree.
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
5%Long shot
M$7.3M· $6.6k avg· Jan 2030
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
13%Long shot
M$4.2M· $5.1k avg· Jan 2101
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
17%Long shot↓1%
$2.4M· Dec 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
AI bubble burst in 2026?
17%Long shot↓3%
$2.3M· Dec 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
45%Unlikely
M$2.0M· $909 avg· Jan 2029
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
8%Long shot
M$1.7M· $3.6k avg· Jan 2040
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
75%Likely YES
$1.6M· Jul 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
8%Long shot
M$1.0M· $1.8k avg· Dec 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
0%Long shot↓4%
$881,177· Jul 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
12%Long shot
M$859,818· $2.6k avg· Jan 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
62%Toss-up↓10%
$848,110· Dec 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
98%Strong YES↑14%
$814,838· Jul 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
0%Long shot
$806,799· Jul 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
54%Toss-up
M$744,254· $756 avg· Jan 2030
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
51%Toss-up↓2%
$684,885· Jul 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
95%Strong YES
M$664,923· $1.9k avg· Mar 2030
Manifold💻 Tech
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
57%Toss-up
M$661,363· $957 avg· Jan 2030
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
0%Long shot
$659,614· Jul 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
6%Long shot
$652,601· Dec 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
0%Long shot
$620,880· Jul 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
1%Long shot↓10%
$599,155· Jul 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?
18%Long shot
M$598,192· $3.7k avg· Jan 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0%Long shot↓1%
$590,189· Dec 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0%Long shot
$578,284· Dec 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
0%Long shot
$526,654· Jul 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0%Long shot
$520,217· Dec 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
10%Long shot
M$518,670· $622 avg· Feb 2027
Manifold💻 Tech
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
93%Strong YES
M$482,570· $914 avg· Jul 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
49%Toss-up
M$470,210· $837 avg· Jan 2028
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
0%Long shot
$443,429· Jul 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?
43%Unlikely
M$411,896· $1.4k avg· Dec 2030
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1%Long shot↓4%
$382,013· Dec 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
98%Strong YES
M$376,078· $1.2k avg· Jan 2028
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
0%Long shot
$364,079· Jul 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
0%Long shot
$341,311· Jul 2026
See how accurate markets have been on our track record page, browse resolved Tech markets.