Manifold💻 Tech
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
37%Unlikely
M$14.0M· $3.0k avg· Jan 2028
💻Tech Prediction Markets
783 live tech markets across 6 platforms
Technology prediction markets cover product launches, AI milestones, company outcomes and other events shaping the industry. Predacle aggregates tech odds from multiple prediction platforms, giving you a single view of how the market is pricing each question — and where platforms disagree.
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
6%Long shot
M$7.4M· $6.6k avg· Jan 2030
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
14%Long shot
M$4.2M· $5.1k avg· Jan 2101
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
6%Long shot↓11%
$2.4M· Jan 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
AI bubble burst in 2026?
10%Long shot↓2%
$2.4M· Jan 2027
Manifold💻 Tech
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
53%Toss-up
M$2.1M· $923 avg· Jan 2029
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
8%Long shot
M$1.7M· $3.6k avg· Jan 2040
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
74%Likely YES↓5%
$1.3M· Jan 2027
Manifold💻 Tech
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
5%Long shot
M$1.0M· $1.9k avg· Dec 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0%Long shot
$987,205· Jan 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1%Long shot
$983,538· Jan 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
99%Strong YES↑10%
$946,737· Sep 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0%Long shot
$917,716· Jan 2027
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
14%Long shot
M$863,593· $2.6k avg· Jan 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
0%Long shot↓3%
$770,692· Sep 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53%Toss-up
M$746,565· $750 avg· Jan 2030
Manifold💻 Tech
Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?
40%Unlikely
M$714,222· $4.1k avg· Jan 2027
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
98%Strong YES
M$697,061· $2.0k avg· Mar 2030
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
100%Strong YES↑2%
$690,624· Dec 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0%Long shot
$686,498· Jan 2027
Manifold💻 Tech
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
69%Likely YES
M$682,963· $970 avg· Jan 2030
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
2%Long shot↓2%
$673,533· Jan 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
100%Strong YES↑7%
$621,235· Oct 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
88%Strong YES
M$544,211· $888 avg· Jan 2028
Manifold💻 Tech
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
8%Long shot
M$529,539· $632 avg· Feb 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
0%Long shot
$486,759· Sep 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?
45%Toss-up
M$479,511· $1.5k avg· Dec 2030
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?
2%Long shot↓4%
$466,736· Jul 2027
Polymarket💻 Tech
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
0%Long shot↓4%
$389,017· Oct 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
0%Long shot↓4%
$383,527· Sep 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
98%Strong YES
M$376,078· $1.2k avg· Jan 2028
Polymarket💻 Tech
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
2%Long shot↓29%
$373,752· Oct 2026
Polymarket💻 Tech
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
0%Long shot↓1%
$351,851· Sep 2026
Manifold💻 Tech
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
87%Strong YES
M$332,445· $1.7k avg· Dec 2029
Manifold💻 Tech
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
87%Strong YES
M$330,959· $873 avg· Jan 2028
Manifold💻 Tech
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
11%Long shot
M$282,771· $1.3k avg· Dec 2060
See how accurate markets have been on our track record page, browse resolved Tech markets.