The market makes Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the favourite at 61%, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 26%. Polymarket and Manifold price 17 candidates in total, with 3 above 4%. These are live prices and they move as money does.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite to win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, at 61% on Polymarket. That is the market's view right now, not a prediction. It moves whenever someone takes a position.
Who else is in contention?
Flávio Bolsonaro and Renan Santos are the next names on the board. Another 14 candidates sit below 4%, so they are counted rather than listed.
Which prediction markets have odds on this?
Polymarket, Manifold. 3 candidates are priced with real money.
What does the percentage actually mean?
It is a price, and the price is the probability. A contract at 61% means traders are collectively paying 61% of a dollar for a payout that comes only if it happens. Nobody at Predacle sets that number. The market does.
How often do these odds update?
Every 30 minutes or so. That is close enough to track the market, but not close enough to trade on blind. Open the source market and check the order book first.
Understanding these odds
What an election market is actually pricing
These prices are not polls. A poll measures stated intent today. A market prices the outcome on election day, with everything between now and then already discounted: turnout, campaign money, scandals, and the chance a candidate is not on the ballot at all. That is why a market price and a polling average can disagree for months, and why the market is often the earlier signal.
Nomination markets and election markets are different questions
Winning a party's nomination and winning the general election are separate contracts with separate prices. A candidate can be a heavy favourite for one and a long shot in the other. Reading a nomination price as a presidency price is the most common mistake people make with this data.
Why platforms disagree on the same event
The same question can trade at different prices on Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless. Each venue has its own traders, its own liquidity and its own fees, so prices drift apart. On thin markets a single large order is enough to open a gap. Predacle shows the best real-money price across venues, and a gap between two of them is sometimes a genuine signal and sometimes just one side being thin.
Real money and play money are not the same thing
Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, Limitless and Bookmaker are real-money venues. Their prices reflect capital at risk. Manifold runs on play money, which has not been convertible to anything since March 2025, so its prices appear here as forecasting signal only. A Manifold price never sets a headline number and never ranks a field. If someone shows up priced only on Manifold, the page says so.