Skip to main content

What are the odds for the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Prediction markets currently give the Democrats about 59% to win the 2028 US Presidential Election, with JD Vance the leading individual candidate at around 20%.

Prediction markets are already pricing the 2028 race. This page pulls together the live markets — party, nominee and candidate questions — so you can see where the money currently sits across platforms, updated continuously.

Party odds

Which party wins the presidency — the broadest market.

59%
Republicans
41%

Nomination odds

Who becomes each party’s nominee — shown as two separate races. (A candidate’s nomination odds differ from their odds of winning the election.)

Democratic nomination
the 2028 Democratic nominee
70%
the Democratic nominee for 2028 presidential election
25%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
14%
Jon Ossoff
14%
Josh Shapiro
5%

+39 more long-shot candidates priced below 4% (not shown).

Republican nomination
Marco Rubio
28%

+33 more long-shot candidates priced below 4% (not shown).

Election winner odds

Who wins the presidency outright, across all candidates.

60%
20%
14%
12%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
8%
Jon Ossoff
8%
Kamala Harris
5%

+32 more long-shot candidates priced below 4% (not shown).

Go deeper

See how accurate prediction markets have been on our track record page, compare platforms on Polymarket vs Kalshi, or browse all politics markets.

Odds are aggregated from live prediction markets and update continuously. A candidate’s number is its best real-money price across the platforms shown. Markets below 4% are summarised as a count to keep the page readable. Every price on this page is a real-money price; play-money (Manifold) markets are excluded. Not financial advice.

Understanding these odds

What an election market is actually pricing

These prices are not polls. A poll measures stated intent today. A market prices the outcome on election day, with everything between now and then already discounted: turnout, campaign money, scandals, and the chance a candidate is not on the ballot at all. That is why a market price and a polling average can disagree for months, and why the market is often the earlier signal.

Nomination markets and election markets are different questions

Winning a party's nomination and winning the general election are separate contracts with separate prices. A candidate can be a heavy favourite for one and a long shot in the other. Reading a nomination price as a presidency price is the most common mistake people make with this data.

Why platforms disagree on the same event

The same question can trade at different prices on Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless. Each venue has its own traders, its own liquidity and its own fees, so prices drift apart. On thin markets a single large order is enough to open a gap. Predacle shows the best real-money price across venues, and a gap between two of them is sometimes a genuine signal and sometimes just one side being thin.

Real money and play money are not the same thing

Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, Limitless and Bookmaker are real-money venues. Their prices reflect capital at risk. Manifold runs on play money, which has not been convertible to anything since March 2025, so its prices appear here as forecasting signal only. A Manifold price never sets a headline number and never ranks a field. If someone shows up priced only on Manifold, the page says so.