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Manifold🗳️ PoliticsEnds Oct 2026

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Current probability

55%

Toss-up
YESNO 45%
CreatedToday (33% elapsed)Closes Oct 2026

Volume

M$314

Avg Bet

$35 avg

Traders

9

Platform

Manifold

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Probability history
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Estimate your potential profit

Profit if correct

$81.82

Total payout

$181.82

Return

82%

Based on current 55% probability. Actual prices may vary.

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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — 55% chance | Predacle