The market makes Aryna Sabalenka the favourite at 24%, ahead of Iga Swiatek at 10%. Polymarket prices 40 players in total, with 9 above 4%. These are live prices and they move as money does.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite to win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
Aryna Sabalenka, at 24% on Polymarket. That is the market's view right now, not a prediction. It moves whenever someone takes a position.
Who else is in contention?
Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff are the next names on the board. Another 31 players sit below 4%, so they are counted rather than listed.
Which prediction markets have odds on this?
Polymarket. 9 players are priced with real money.
What does the percentage actually mean?
It is a price, and the price is the probability. A contract at 24% means traders are collectively paying 24% of a dollar for a payout that comes only if it happens. Nobody at Predacle sets that number. The market does.
How often do these odds update?
Every 30 minutes or so. That is close enough to track the market, but not close enough to trade on blind. Open the source market and check the order book first.
Understanding these odds
How a tennis outright market prices a draw
A Grand Slam field is top-heavy by nature. Two or three players take most of the probability, and the rest of the draw splits what is left. That is not the market being lazy. Seeded players meet nobody dangerous until the second week, so their path is genuinely easier, and the price reflects it. Watch what happens when the bracket comes out: prices move on who landed in whose half, before a ball is struck.
Why a big name can sit at 2%
A former champion priced in the low single digits has not been written off. It means the market thinks they win this specific event roughly one time in fifty. Seven matches is a long way to go. Injury risk, surface, form and the draw all compound, and the maths punishes even great players who have to beat three of the top five to lift the trophy.
Why platforms disagree on the same event
The same question can trade at different prices on Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless. Each venue has its own traders, its own liquidity and its own fees, so prices drift apart. On thin markets a single large order is enough to open a gap. Predacle shows the best real-money price across venues, and a gap between two of them is sometimes a genuine signal and sometimes just one side being thin.
Real money and play money are not the same thing
Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, Limitless and Bookmaker are real-money venues. Their prices reflect capital at risk. Manifold runs on play money, which has not been convertible to anything since March 2025, so its prices appear here as forecasting signal only. A Manifold price never sets a headline number and never ranks a field. If someone shows up priced only on Manifold, the page says so.