Understanding these odds
How a tennis outright market prices a draw
A Grand Slam field is top-heavy by nature. Two or three players take most of the probability, and the rest of the draw splits what is left. That is not the market being lazy. Seeded players meet nobody dangerous until the second week, so their path is genuinely easier, and the price reflects it. Watch what happens when the bracket comes out: prices move on who landed in whose half, before a ball is struck.
Why a big name can sit at 2%
A former champion priced in the low single digits has not been written off. It means the market thinks they win this specific event roughly one time in fifty. Seven matches is a long way to go. Injury risk, surface, form and the draw all compound, and the maths punishes even great players who have to beat three of the top five to lift the trophy.
Why platforms disagree on the same event
The same question can trade at different prices on Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless. Each venue has its own traders, its own liquidity and its own fees, so prices drift apart. On thin markets a single large order is enough to open a gap. Predacle shows the best real-money price across venues, and a gap between two of them is sometimes a genuine signal and sometimes just one side being thin.
Real money and play money are not the same thing
Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, Limitless and Bookmaker are real-money venues. Their prices reflect capital at risk. Manifold runs on play money, which has not been convertible to anything since March 2025, so its prices appear here as forecasting signal only. A Manifold price never sets a headline number and never ranks a field. If someone shows up priced only on Manifold, the page says so.