When will GPT-6 be released? (prediction market odds)
Prediction markets currently make Dec 31, 2026 the favourite at around 88%.
GPT-5.6 has shipped; the live question is GPT-6. Prediction markets price each possible release deadline as its own contract, so this page reads as a timeline: how likely OpenAI ships GPT-6 by each date, by the end of 2026. (Separately, one Polymarket market gives GPT-6 a coin-flip chance of arriving before Grand Theft Auto VI.) Updated continuously.
Odds are aggregated from live prediction markets and update continuously. A contender’s number is its best real-money price across the platforms shown. Markets below 4% are summarised as a count to keep the page readable. Every price on this page is a real-money price; play-money (Manifold) markets are excluded. Not financial advice.
Prediction markets give Aug 14, 2026 a 7% chance, falling to 88% at Dec 31, 2026. Polymarket prices 6 levels in total. These are nested rather than competing: clearing a higher level means clearing the ones below it, so the percentages do not sum to 100%.
Frequently asked questions
Do these percentages add up to 100%?
No, and they are not meant to. Each level is a separate contract and they are nested: clearing Dec 31, 2026 means also clearing Aug 14, 2026 on the way. A lower level is always at least as likely as a higher one. Read the ladder as a curve, not as competing options.
What are the odds of Aug 14, 2026?
7%, which is the most likely level on this board. Dec 31, 2026 sits at 88%. Everything between the two falls on the curve you can see above.
Which prediction markets have odds on this?
Polymarket. Each level trades as its own contract, so the prices come from real traders taking positions on that specific threshold, not from an analyst's forecast.
How often do these odds update?
Every 30 minutes or so. Crypto moves faster than that, so open the source market and check the live order book before trading on anything you see here.
Understanding these odds
These probabilities do not add up to 100%
This is the most important thing to understand on this page. A price ladder is not a contest with one winner. Each level is a separate contract, and they are nested: if Bitcoin reaches $150,000 then it has also, on the way, reached $90,000. So a lower level is always at least as likely as a higher one, and adding the percentages together tells you nothing. Read the ladder as a curve, not as a set of competing options.
What the shape of the curve tells you
A curve that falls away gently means the market thinks a big move is plausible. One that collapses fast means it does not. Watch the gap between adjacent rungs: a sharp drop between two nearby levels is the market naming a price it does not expect to be crossed. And compare the upside ladder to the downside one. When the downside carries more money and higher probabilities, the market is telling you where it thinks the risk actually sits, regardless of what anyone is posting online.
Why platforms disagree on the same event
The same question can trade at different prices on Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless. Each venue has its own traders, its own liquidity and its own fees, so prices drift apart. On thin markets a single large order is enough to open a gap. Predacle shows the best real-money price across venues, and a gap between two of them is sometimes a genuine signal and sometimes just one side being thin.
Every price here is real money
Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, Limitless and Bookmaker are real-money venues: their prices reflect capital at risk. Manifold runs on play money, which has not been convertible to anything since March 2025, and it is excluded from this page entirely. A price ladder only means something if every rung is a real, tradeable price at the same threshold, so play-money markets are filtered out before the curve is built rather than shown as signal.