Prediction markets give $70,000 a 83% chance, falling to 4% at $130,000. Polymarket prices 20 levels in total. These are nested rather than competing: clearing a higher level means clearing the ones below it, so the percentages do not sum to 100%.
Frequently asked questions
Do these percentages add up to 100%?
No, and they are not meant to. Each level is a separate contract and they are nested: clearing $130,000 means also clearing $70,000 on the way. A lower level is always at least as likely as a higher one. Read the ladder as a curve, not as competing options.
What are the odds of $70,000?
83%, which is the most likely level on this board. $130,000 sits at 4%. Everything between the two falls on the curve you can see above.
Which prediction markets have odds on this?
Polymarket. Each level trades as its own contract, so the prices come from real traders taking positions on that specific threshold, not from an analyst's forecast.
How often do these odds update?
Every 30 minutes or so. Crypto moves faster than that, so open the source market and check the live order book before trading on anything you see here.
Understanding these odds
These probabilities do not add up to 100%
This is the most important thing to understand on this page. A price ladder is not a contest with one winner. Each level is a separate contract, and they are nested: if Bitcoin reaches $150,000 then it has also, on the way, reached $90,000. So a lower level is always at least as likely as a higher one, and adding the percentages together tells you nothing. Read the ladder as a curve, not as a set of competing options.
What the shape of the curve tells you
A curve that falls away gently means the market thinks a big move is plausible. One that collapses fast means it does not. Watch the gap between adjacent rungs: a sharp drop between two nearby levels is the market naming a price it does not expect to be crossed. And compare the upside ladder to the downside one. When the downside carries more money and higher probabilities, the market is telling you where it thinks the risk actually sits, regardless of what anyone is posting online.
Why platforms disagree on the same event
The same question can trade at different prices on Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless. Each venue has its own traders, its own liquidity and its own fees, so prices drift apart. On thin markets a single large order is enough to open a gap. Predacle shows the best real-money price across venues, and a gap between two of them is sometimes a genuine signal and sometimes just one side being thin.
Every price here is real money
Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, Limitless and Bookmaker are real-money venues: their prices reflect capital at risk. Manifold runs on play money, which has not been convertible to anything since March 2025, and it is excluded from this page entirely. A price ladder only means something if every rung is a real, tradeable price at the same threshold, so play-money markets are filtered out before the curve is built rather than shown as signal.