The market makes Los Angeles Dodgers the favourite at 32%, ahead of New York Yankees at 13%. Polymarket and Manifold price 29 teams in total, with 9 above 4%. These are live prices and they move as money does.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite to win the 2026 World Series?
Los Angeles Dodgers, at 32% on Polymarket. That is the market's view right now, not a prediction. It moves whenever someone takes a position.
Who else is in contention?
New York Yankees, Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves are the next names on the board. Another 20 teams sit below 4%, so they are counted rather than listed.
Which prediction markets have odds on this?
Polymarket, Manifold. 9 teams are priced with real money.
What does the percentage actually mean?
It is a price, and the price is the probability. A contract at 32% means traders are collectively paying 32% of a dollar for a payout that comes only if it happens. Nobody at Predacle sets that number. The market does.
How often do these odds update?
Every 30 minutes or so. That is close enough to track the market, but not close enough to trade on blind. Open the source market and check the order book first.
Understanding these odds
Why baseball championship odds stay flat
Baseball is the least predictable of the major sports at the top end. The best team in a 162-game season still loses roughly a third of its games, and a short playoff series is close to a coin flip between good teams. That is why even a dominant favourite rarely clears 20% here, where an NBA favourite might sit at 40%.
What moves the number
Trade deadlines, rotation health and September form do most of the repricing. A single injury to a front-line starter can move a contender several points, because the playoff maths leans so heavily on the top of a rotation.
Why platforms disagree on the same event
The same question can trade at different prices on Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless. Each venue has its own traders, its own liquidity and its own fees, so prices drift apart. On thin markets a single large order is enough to open a gap. Predacle shows the best real-money price across venues, and a gap between two of them is sometimes a genuine signal and sometimes just one side being thin.
Real money and play money are not the same thing
Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, Limitless and Bookmaker are real-money venues. Their prices reflect capital at risk. Manifold runs on play money, which has not been convertible to anything since March 2025, so its prices appear here as forecasting signal only. A Manifold price never sets a headline number and never ranks a field. If someone shows up priced only on Manifold, the page says so.