Understanding these odds
Reading a knockout field
A soccer outright prices a whole competition, not a match. A team at 12% is not 12% likely to win any single game; it is 12% likely to survive every game it has left. That is a very different question, and it is why these numbers swing harder than a league table would suggest. The draw matters enormously. One red card in a quarter-final can reprice the entire board overnight.
Why the favourite is rarely above 25%
Soccer is low-scoring, and low-scoring sports are upset-friendly. The better team wins a single knockout tie far less reliably than in basketball, and a tournament asks a side to win several of them back to back. Even the best team in the world usually sits in the teens or low twenties here, and that is the market being sensible rather than indecisive.
Why platforms disagree on the same event
The same question can trade at different prices on Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless. Each venue has its own traders, its own liquidity and its own fees, so prices drift apart. On thin markets a single large order is enough to open a gap. Predacle shows the best real-money price across venues, and a gap between two of them is sometimes a genuine signal and sometimes just one side being thin.
Real money and play money are not the same thing
Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, Limitless and Bookmaker are real-money venues. Their prices reflect capital at risk. Manifold runs on play money, which has not been convertible to anything since March 2025, so its prices appear here as forecasting signal only. A Manifold price never sets a headline number and never ranks a field. If someone shows up priced only on Manifold, the page says so.