The market makes Kimi Antonelli the favourite at 74%, ahead of George Russell at 13%. Myriad and Polymarket price 22 drivers in total, with 3 above 4%. These are live prices and they move as money does.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite to win the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Championship?
Kimi Antonelli, at 74% on Polymarket. That is the market's view right now, not a prediction. It moves whenever someone takes a position.
Who else is in contention?
George Russell and Lewis Hamilton are the next names on the board. Another 19 drivers sit below 4%, so they are counted rather than listed.
Which prediction markets have odds on this?
Myriad, Polymarket. 3 drivers are priced with real money.
What does the percentage actually mean?
It is a price, and the price is the probability. A contract at 74% means traders are collectively paying 74% of a dollar for a payout that comes only if it happens. Nobody at Predacle sets that number. The market does.
How often do these odds update?
Every 30 minutes or so. That is close enough to track the market, but not close enough to trade on blind. Open the source market and check the order book first.
Understanding these odds
Why one driver can dominate the board
Formula 1 titles are decided as much by the car as the driver, and car performance is stable across a season in a way that form in a team sport is not. That is why an F1 championship market can look lopsided in a way that would be strange in soccer or baseball. If a car is quickest, it is quickest at most circuits.
What reprices a season
Regulation changes, upgrade packages and reliability. A single engine failure costs points that cannot be recovered, so DNFs move the title price far more than a bad qualifying session does.
Why platforms disagree on the same event
The same question can trade at different prices on Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad and Limitless. Each venue has its own traders, its own liquidity and its own fees, so prices drift apart. On thin markets a single large order is enough to open a gap. Predacle shows the best real-money price across venues, and a gap between two of them is sometimes a genuine signal and sometimes just one side being thin.
Real money and play money are not the same thing
Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad, Limitless and Bookmaker are real-money venues. Their prices reflect capital at risk. Manifold runs on play money, which has not been convertible to anything since March 2025, so its prices appear here as forecasting signal only. A Manifold price never sets a headline number and never ranks a field. If someone shows up priced only on Manifold, the page says so.