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Manifold🗳️ PoliticsEnds Nov 2026

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Current probability

14%

Long shot
YESNO 86%
CreatedToday (34% elapsed)Closes Nov 2026

Volume

M$326,120

Avg Bet

$550 avg

Traders

593

Platform

Manifold

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Probability history
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Estimate your potential profit

Profit if correct

$590.13

Total payout

$690.13

Return

590%

Based on current 14% probability. Actual prices may vary.

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If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms? — 14% chance | Predacle