As of 2026-09-05, prediction markets estimate a 18% probability. Based on Manifold with M$91,020 in volume.

Manifold🌐 OtherEnds Jan 2030

Q-Day before 2030?

Current probability

18%

Long shot

YESNO 82%

CreatedToday (5% elapsed)Closes Jan 2030

Volume

M$91,020

Avg Bet

$1.0k avg

Traders

Platform

Manifold

Trade this market on Manifold

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Probability history

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🧮 Bet Calculator

Estimate your potential profit

Bet Amount (USD)

Bet on

Profit if correct

$463.70

Total payout

$563.70

Return

464%

Based on current 18% probability. Actual prices may vary.

Predacle aggregates public data from prediction market platforms. This is not financial advice.