Manifold🏆 SportsEnds Jul 2028

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Current probability

96%

Strong YES

YESNO 4%

CreatedToday (7% elapsed)Closes Jul 2028

Volume

M$10.4M

Avg Bet

$10.4k avg

Traders

999

Platform

Manifold

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Probability history

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Profit if correct

$4.16

Total payout

$104.16

Return

4%

Based on current 96% probability. Actual prices may vary.

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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin? — 96% chance | Predacle