Manifold🌐 OtherEnds Jan 2030

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Current probability

38%

Unlikely

YESNO 62%

CreatedToday (1% elapsed)Closes Jan 2030

Volume

M$81,184

Avg Bet

$335 avg

Traders

242

Platform

Manifold

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Profit if correct

$160.76

Total payout

$260.76

Return

161%

Based on current 38% probability. Actual prices may vary.

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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030? — 38% chance | Predacle