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Manifold๐ŸŒ OtherEnds Jan 2030

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Current probability

36%

Unlikely
YESNO 64%
CreatedToday (9% elapsed)Closes Jan 2030

Volume

M$81,555

Avg Bet

$336 avg

Traders

243

Platform

Manifold

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Probability history
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Estimate your potential profit

Profit if correct

$177.16

Total payout

$277.16

Return

177%

Based on current 36% probability. Actual prices may vary.

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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030? โ€” 36% chance | Predacle