Manifold🌐 OtherEnds Jan 2030

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Current probability

39%

Unlikely

YESNO 61%

CreatedToday (5% elapsed)Closes Jan 2030

Volume

M$81,476

Avg Bet

$335 avg

Traders

243

Platform

Manifold

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Profit if correct

$156.41

Total payout

$256.41

Return

156%

Based on current 39% probability. Actual prices may vary.

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Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030? — 39% chance | Predacle