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Manifold💻 TechEnds Jan 2028

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Current probability

44%

Unlikely
YESNO 56%
CreatedToday (17% elapsed)Closes Jan 2028

Volume

M$148,598

Avg Bet

$375 avg

Traders

396

Platform

Manifold

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Probability history
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Estimate your potential profit

Profit if correct

$129.62

Total payout

$229.62

Return

130%

Based on current 44% probability. Actual prices may vary.

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In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors? — 44% chance | Predacle