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Manifold💻 TechEnds Jan 2028

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Current probability

52%

Toss-up
YESNO 48%
CreatedToday (9% elapsed)Closes Jan 2028

Volume

M$147,282

Avg Bet

$376 avg

Traders

392

Platform

Manifold

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Probability history
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Estimate your potential profit

Profit if correct

$92.31

Total payout

$192.31

Return

92%

Based on current 52% probability. Actual prices may vary.

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In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors? — 52% chance | Predacle