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Kalshi vs Manifold

Two prediction-market platforms compared on what actually matters — regulation, funding, fees and coverage — plus a live feed of markets where Kalshi and Manifold price the same event differently right now.

Heads up: Manifold uses play-money "mana", not real currency. Prices reflect forecasting interest, not money at risk, so a head-to-head with a real-money platform is not a like-for-like trading choice — treat it as a forecasting signal, not a place to put real capital against the other.

At a glance

Dimension
Kalshi
Manifold
Regulation & safety
CFTC-regulated as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), with an affiliated clearing organization — the same regulatory footing as conventional futures exchanges. Some sports/event categories still face state-level legal challenges.
Play-money platform — not a financial exchange and not CFTC-regulated.
Money & funding
US dollars via bank/ACH, debit card, or wire; customer funds held in segregated US accounts.
Uses play-money "mana", not real currency, so positions carry no monetary value.
Markets & coverage
Strong economic, financial and political coverage (CPI, rates, elections) and heavy sports volume; markets cleared through CFTC review.
A huge, user-created long tail of questions across every topic, plus forecasting-community markets.
Fees
Tied to the contract price (a maker–taker model); peaks for mid-probability contracts and falls toward the extremes. Check current rates on-platform.
No real-money fees — it is a play-money platform.
Best for
Beginners, US bank users, and anyone who values regulatory clarity and USD custody.
Forecasters and hobbyists who want to test calibration without risking money.

⚡ Where they disagree right now

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Go deeper

See how well markets are calibrated on our prediction market track record page, browse resolved markets, or compare live prices across all platforms on the markets page.

Platform details are general and can change — always verify current fees, availability and terms on Kalshi and Manifold directly. Not financial advice.